"The world is changing." Those four words, uttered by elf-queen Galadriel in "The Lord of the Rings" are increasingly apparent these days. Not since the 1960's has America been such a hotbed of protests and division amongst its people. And as we traveled along the rain soaked and sparsely populated route between Dallas and Abilen, along I-20 this weekend, we found ourselves looking at the world with different eyes.

Sure, it was the monthly pilgrimage to an out of town junior tennis tournament. And yes, travel does get one out of the daily monotony of life. But, it's not often that so many things are as noticeable at any one time.

For one thing, the date was pivotal, as we were driving on 9/11. As we left town there were flags on lawns in some of the neighborhoods. And the fact that fall seems as if it's coming early brougth forward the notion of change. Nevermind that headlines were noting protest marches on Capital Hill and that CNN broadcast a story in the morning that suggested that perhaps an attack was being made on Washington D.C. via the Potomac. The story was later cleared up. But there you had it.

Although it was mid-afternoon on a Friday, traffic was no problem getting out of Dallas. This was unusual, and made us wonder about the economic significance of such an occurrence. Especially as job losses continue. More on that later, though.

We saw other things that made us think about change. For one, a billboard advertising Islam as an alternative. That was the second one we noticed in a week. That's new, and in Dallas, it seems, well, quite unsual.

As we drove down I-20, truck traffic was moderate at best. We only saw one China Shipping semi. Otherwise, most were unmarked. The usual clutter of U.S. Postal Service, U.P.S. and FedEx trucks, just weren't there. Few moving vans were on display. That's different.

A very busy prime location roadside Starbucks, about half-way between Forth Worth and Abilene was closed. The McDonald's next to it, and the Sonic accross the street were steady, but not overwhelmed.

When we got a coffee at the McDonald's the young woman who served us, gave us the senior citizen discount. That was clearly different. She said she was just trying to save me some money, hinting at the fact that she was doing that quite a bit now. Whether that was a business ploy, or whether this scribe has seen better days remains to be flushed out. Nevertheless, it seems as if she is used to giving customers a break now. That's different.

On the road the only contruction we noted was a very large church/community center, which was not completed. There are several local oil service companies with shops along the highway. None were open, although they did not look shuttered. There was lots of land for sale, especially land next to non-functioning oil derricks, of which there were lots fewer than we've seen on fewer trips. That suggests that the oil fields may be drying up, are too expensive to operate, or can't compete with the gushing natural gas from Forth Worth's Barnett Shale find.

Abilene is a moderate sized town which makes a living from travelers. It's the only major stop between Midland-Odessa and Weatherford, TX. That's a huge stretch of road. The town is laid out in a way that most of it lies south of Interstate 20. Once you turn toward the city, you see buildings and businesses. This time, it seemed as if fewer businesses were actually operating. Traffic on the crosstown freeway was fairly busy, but the real activity didn't pick up to levels we've noticed before until we neared the Mall of Abilene area where there is a hub of restaurants and hotels.

The hotel parking lots were fairly full by night time, which is fairly standard, especially on a weekend with a tennis tournament. But the upscale restaurants, especially a very good local Mexican place was about half full. We got a table immediately during prime time. The same thing the next night at the local Outback steak house. No waiting.

We ran into a friend whose son plays tennis. He was planning on sending the young man to California for a year of training at a prestigious academy. He lost his job at Verizon in Dallas last week and had to cancel the tennis dream. This is an experienced, hard working, and talented IT guy, who just got canned along with 8,000 others he told us. He added that these job cuts were announced months ago but are now being implemented. He has no prospects.

That means that job losses are likely to continue to dribble in over a longer period of time than anyone may have expected, except the White House, which, to their credit apparently, may actually have a decent handle on that statistic.

In Houston, according to a restaurant owner with excellent instincts about the economy, things are "slow." His restaurant has noticed decreasing sales of expensive wine, desserts, and appetizers. He is doing well enough, he added, because clients from more upscale restaurants are coming to his middle market shop. He says it's because he offers a better value.

The question is not so much about whether there is something going on, but more about what it is and where it's leading us. More important to us is when and if the market will factor in what seems to be a glacier pace slide toward something more problematic than what we saw in 2007.

Conclusion

As we noted here on 9/11/ The markets are starting a love fest for anything that has to do with equities. That's a good thing for equity investors. It should not be, however, mistaken for an all clear sign. Markets function on current information and expectations built on that information.

The value of our "Tales from the Road" segments is that we are now starting to see the rot of the recession slip toward places that had been resistant to it in the past. Smaller towns with colleges, sporting events, and sometimes health care as their business hubs, seemed to be holding up.

Abilene, and the road to Abilene, are telling a different tale than Austin and San Antonio, and even Dothan, Alabama, where we visited last February.

There is still activity here. But it seems to be more sporadic and certainly less buoyant than before. The fact that the weakness is now spreading to Dallas and Houston, at least based on the experiences of folks that we know, is important.

That means one of two things. The market is correct and things are within a few months of improving significantly. Or the market has it wrong and Abilene, Houston, Dallas, and the I-20 route to Abilene has it right.

If the latter is the truth, then we can expect the market to correct at some point. For now, we like the technicals of this market. And if you want to make money, you trade with the trend. Yet, we can't help but getting a bad feeling about what may happen over the next few months if Wall Street's expectations are not met.

Finally, after watching undedited video of the protest against the government march in Washington on 9-12, you get the feeling that change is not all that Congress and the White House need to worry about. The air smells of much more than that. And it's not all good for anybody. These are significant times for America.

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