Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) shares are close to a breakout for the first time since March 2010.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Wal-Mart has been a huge disappointment for long and short term shareholders. The stock has not delivered a sustained advance since it rallied from 40 to 60 starting in November 2007 to September 2008. So this time could be like most times recently, a nice looking chart that goes nowhere.

What could make this time different is the notion that the economy is at a point where consumers may have thrown in the towel and are going to make the discount retailer their shopping home. On our summer travels, and in our monthly travels, one thing stands out. Wal-Mart parking lots everywhere we go are full, which means that the stores have traffic.

They have more traffic than Target parking lots, as far as we can see and have been able to compare. And Target sales have been fairly steady of late. So if you use the parking lot analysis method, you can extrapolate that if Wal-Mart's parking lots are busier than Target's, and Target is doing o.k., Wal-Mart is likely to do o.k. or better than Target.

Sure, these are soft metrics. But, Wal-Mart's chart suggests that money is going into the stock, which suggests that someone, most likely mutual funds are building positions in the stock. More interesting is the fact that only huge discounter Dollar Tree is the only stock that is holding up better than Wal-Mart, performance wise in the retail/discount group.

A move above 52 on Wal-Mart, could be the start of an intermediate term advance.

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