Dallas, TX
July 20, 2010, 08:00 EST
Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q.


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More "New Normal": Unemployed CEOs And Cities Outsourcing All Services
What's Hot Today:

U.S. stock index futures were heading lower on Tuesday. Bad earnings from IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) set the stage.

Today's Economic Calendar



News For Thought

Google lays an egg with Nexus cell phone. According to The Wall Street Journal: "Google's Nexus One smartphone will soon be discontinued in the U.S., as missteps and weak demand foiled the Internet company's attempt to shake up the way wireless phones are distributed."

Server fever powering business spending. According to The Wall Street Journal: "Behind the recovery in business spending is a surge in purchases of the computers that form the backbone of the Internet, as companies scramble to meet growing demand for video and other Web-based services. The need to reach customers and employees over the Web is driving furious demand for server systems, the machines that power corporate computer rooms. Many companies are stocking up on new servers, which typically cost a few thousand dollars apiece, to replace older machines with more energy efficient models or systems with more powerful processors."

 


More "New Normal": Unemployed CEOs And Cities Outsourcing All Services
The Waiting Game Toward November Is Starting To Gather Steam
As the "new normal" continues to develop two interesting concepts are developing. When CEOs get fired, they seem to stay fired. And at least one city in the U.S. has now fired all of its employees, hired contractors, and nothing awful has happened. What it tells us is that some people are actually waking up.

According to The New York Times, in the city of Maywood, California, a "poor, long-troubled and heavily Hispanic city southeast of Los Angeles" did what many cities are only starting to do. It fired all of its municipal workforce. According to the report "The school crossing guards were let go. Parking enforcement was contracted out, City Hall workers dismissed, street maintenance workers made redundant," and "the public safety duties of the Police Department were handed over to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department." So what happened? The Times reports that things actually got better, noting "The apocalypse never arrived. In fact, it seems this city was so bad at being a city that outsourcing — so far, at least — is being viewed as an act of municipal genius."

And in fact, at least for the near future, it may be genius. Someone finally figured out that what they were doing wasn't working and tried something different, which seems to be working.

To be sure, Maywood is not exactly a model city, and the city doesn't want to become the prototype for municipal governments. But, there is something worth noting here. In the past, Maywood was a very bad place. According to The Times: "Four years ago, in what was probably the high-water mark of acrimony in Maywood, a deputy city clerk was arrested and accused of soliciting a hit man to kill a city councilman. The deputy clerk, Hector Duarte (no relation to this scribe), was concerned that his salary might be reduced or his job eliminated during a previous round of bad fiscal times; he was sentenced to a year in jail and six months of anger management counseling."

And here's what's interesting about Maywood. The city covers one square mile, and has a population estimated between 30 and 50,000 people at any time. And what was the biggest problem? According to The Times, it was the "police department," which according to a report from the state attorney general “is one permeated with sexual innuendo, harassment, vulgarity, discourtesy to members of the public as well as among officers, and a lack of cultural, racial and ethnic sensitivity and respect.” And here's the source of much of the city's financial trouble. According to The Times: "There are $19 million in claims pending against the police, which made it effectively impossible for the city to get insurance for any of its employees. If Maywood did not dismiss the municipal work force, officials said, bankruptcy would have been the only option. The total number of laid-off employees, including those in the Police Department, was about 60, city officials said."

The bottom line here? Maywood got the L.A. Sherriff's department to take over policing the city for half of what it used to spend on the local cops and in the process saved another $800,000 in insurance premiums for its workers.

This story is clearly developing. But it is very interesting and could have implications for what other cities do in the future, especially if the economy continues along the "new normal" path.

Next, if you're a CEO and you lose your job, there is no guarantee that you'll be back in the saddle anytime soon. According to The Wall Street Journal: "No one knows how many out-of-work CEOs are looking for corner office suites, but recruiters say their numbers are growing. Fewer big businesses are switching bosses these days and mergers and bankruptcies have further reduced their job prospects. Only 48 companies in the S&P 500 index changed leaders last year, the lowest level since recruiters Spencer Stuart began tracking it in 2004."

Even former CEOs with big time credentials are out of work. According to The Journal: "Carlos Gutierrez, a former Kellogg Co. CEO who resigned as U.S. Commerce secretary early last year, desires to run a public company with at least $14 billion in annual revenue. He says he's spurned feelers about running concerns that he felt were too small, headquartered abroad or privately owned." And if you've had trouble in the past, the present is less forgiving than it used to be. According to The Journal: "Chiefs with controversies on their resumes face high hurdles. Mike Zafirovski left Nortel Networks Corp. last August amid a dismantling of the fallen technology giant following a bankruptcy-court filing. He prefers to lead another large business and has prepared a detailed, two-page chart of his career financial-feats, according to someone familiar with the matter. Mr. Zafirovski spent more than three years trying to turn Nortel around, but critics say he didn't move fast enough. Its bankruptcy hurts his job hunt, according to recruiters."

It's often lonely at the top, but it seems to be lonelier when you fall from grace.

Conclusion

The "new normal" is shaking things up and the bottom line seems to be that if you don't deliver, you're gone. And when you're gone, you're gone for good, unless you've got something that is worth something to someone else.

That kind of dynamic was usually left for those of us who actually work for a living. If you didn't deliver, you were gone. You were measured by performance and results. But CEOs and municipal workers were measured by another set of rules, which seem to be changing.

We think that this is going to stick around for some time. And we think that this zero tolerance mood is going to extend into the political arena, which means that the Democrats could lose a lot of seats in both houses in November. But here's where things are going to get interesting. If the people that replace the incumbents don't deliver, unless there is a drastic change down the line, we think that those folks will be one term Congressfolk.

We'll be on Twitter some time today before the market closes with some updated comments.

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Market Moves - Stock Of The Day
Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) Is Increasingly Weak
Shares Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) failed to close above 250 on Monday. That's a sign that more trouble could lie ahed.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com


Steve Jobs may have saved the new I-phone by giving owners a free case to make up for bad antennas. But the company's stock is telling a different story.

Apple hasn't been above 250 on a closing basis since July 14. And volume is rising on down days, suggesting that the sellers are gaining the upper hand.

The company reports earnings after the close today, and they are expected to be fairly robust, so we'll be watching carefully.

Still, if they can't hold the price above 250, we would expect lower prices ahead here, barring a big turnaround in the market.

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