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February 16, 2010, 08:00 EST
Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q.


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Report: Goldman Sachs Had Connection To Greece Crisis
What's Hot Today:
U.S. stock index futures were again pointing to a modestly higher open on Tuesday. Overnight markets were mostly higher. The Greece situation seems to be pausing for now. Gold is back to rallying as the dollar pulls back. Today's Economic Calendar:
  • Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET

  • Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET

  • 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET

  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET

  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET

  • Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET
News For Thought

Medical malpractice changes could become part of health care dialog. According to The Hill.com: President Obama may be interested in discussing changes in medical malpractice with Republicans in order to move his health care "reform" agenda forward. Trial lawyers are opposed to the idea.

Los Angeles faces budget crisis. According to Reuters: "Los Angeles, the second-largest city in the United States, is confronting a mounting budget deficit that threatens to force thousands of job cuts, deplete its fiscal reserve and further damage its credit rating.The $212 million budget shortfall, projected to more than double next year, is attributed mainly to plunging tax revenue blamed on the region's sagging economy, falling property values and a 15 percent jobless rate -- one of the highest of any major U.S. city."

U.K. Inflation rises. The latest U.K. consumer price index rose 3.5%. Gold rallied on the news. Expect the Federal Reserve to continue its move toward raising interest rates this year.

Report: Goldman Sachs Had Connection To Greece Crisis
Looking Ahead: Tomorrow's Crises Are Being SOwn Today
Goldman Sachs helped Greece "skirt" European Union debt limits leading to the current financial crisis, reported the New York Times.

The report, based on interviews and documents reviewed notes that the tactics employed by Wall Street were similar, at least conceptually to the same ones that prompted the subprime mortgage crisis.

The Times, reporting based on interviews with individuals close to the situation noted that as early as November, Goldman Sachs was in Greece bringing "modern solutions" to the Mediterranean nation. According to the report, Goldman offered Greece a "a financing instrument that would have pushed debt from Greece’s health care system far into the future, much as when strapped homeowners take out second mortgages to pay off their credit cards." And this wasn't the first time that Goldman had come to Greece's aid. According to the report, in 2001, Goldman engineered a solution that featured a loan, basically disguised as a currency trade that "helped Athens to meet Europe’s deficit rules while continuing to spend beyond its means." The fact that Goldman structured the deal as a currency trade kept the transaction from public view.

And although Greece didn't take Goldman up this time, The Times article notes that the use of derivatives remained a central part of the potential transaction and "Instruments developed by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and a wide range of other banks enabled politicians to mask additional borrowing in Greece, Italy and possibly elsewhere." In fact, as the Times points out "In dozens of deals across the Continent, banks provided cash upfront in return for government payments in the future, with those liabilities then left off the books. Greece, for example, traded away the rights to airport fees and lottery proceeds in years to come." In essence, the report suggests that aside from the usual political smoke and mirror tricks employed in jiggering annual budgets, there may be more significant problems that lie ahead, based on the assumption that more derivative based deals have been cut with other countries.

What makes the Greece issue significant, aside from the lack of transparency, is the involvement of major banks. The New York Times reported: "The country is, in the argot of banking, too big to be allowed to fail. Greece owes the world $300 billion, and major banks are on the hook for much of that debt. A default would reverberate around the globe."

So here's where it gets even better. None of this, is in the strictest sense illegal. According to The Times: "Wall Street did not create Europe’s debt problem. But bankers enabled Greece and others to borrow beyond their means, in deals that were perfectly legal. Few rules govern how nations can borrow the money they need for expenses like the military and health care. The market for sovereign debt — the Wall Street term for loans to governments — is as unfettered as it is vast."

Even more important is to know why this happened. Aside from the obvious link to human nature, that everyone wants to live beyond their means and pass trouble on into the future, the formation of the E.U. is central to this crisis. When the union was formulated, countries like Greece were nowhere near the financial place needed to enter. So in came in Wall Street with so called solutions, or ways to get the books to look as if they met criteria. In the meantime, liabilities were disguised and pushed forward in order to make things look acceptable. And large fees were collected. The New York Times reports that Greece paid Goldman Sachs $300 million for the 2001 deal.

The bottom line is that "the birth of the euro came with an original sin: countries like Italy and Greece entered the monetary union with bigger deficits than the ones permitted under the treaty that created the currency. Rather than raise taxes or reduce spending, however, these governments artificially reduced their deficits with derivatives."

And Greece is not alone. According to The Times: "Italy was able to do more than that. Despite persistently high deficits, a 1996 derivative helped bring Italy’s budget into line by swapping currency with JPMorgan at a favorable exchange rate, effectively putting more money in the government’s hands. In return, Italy committed to future payments that were not booked as liabilities." Greece's deals are even more startling. According to The Times: "In Greece, the financial wizardry went even further. In what amounted to a garage sale on a national scale, Greek officials essentially mortgaged the country’s airports and highways to raise much-needed money. Aeolos, a legal entity created in 2001, helped Greece reduce the debt on its balance sheet that year. As part of the deal, Greece got cash upfront in return for pledging future landing fees at the country’s airports. A similar deal in 2000 called Ariadne devoured the revenue that the government collected from its national lottery. Greece, however, classified those transactions as sales, not loans, despite doubts by many critics."

So is Goldman holding the bag? Are you kiding? The Times reports that Goldman sold its stake in the 2001 currency swap to The National Bank of Greece in 2005.

Conclusion

The story about the tangled web created by derivatives is mind boggling. To be sure, there is no apparent legal problem here, and the ethics are murky. After all, governments have duties to their populations with regard to keeping services going.

What this is about is more about the fiat money system, which is based on the legal tender promise, which is akin to air, as new money comes from the mind of whoever is in charge of the central banks.

Indeed, we may be watching the early stages of a multi-tiered implosion of the fiat system. But, whether this implosion matters or not remains uncertain.

The majority of the world's population has no idea as to what fiat money means, or that the whole global financial system is based on a sort of fiction concocted by central bankers and the markets' perception of who's got a better imagination.

This may turn out to be a non event, at least from a market standpoint. But, then, maybe not. It just gets crazier with every new day.

Perhaps the take home point is that future crises are likely being sewn as we speak. Trading is an increasingly risky business, especially for individual investors who still adhere to buy and hold investing strategies and who rely on others to manage their money. There is no substitute for truly learning how to manage your own money.

Know when to sell and how to make money when the market falls. Get a detailed trading plan in your pocket. Read Dr. Duarte's All NEW Books "Market Timing For Dummies." and "Trading Futures For Dummies." The Trading Manuals for All Seasons. Also Available As Kindle Books.

 


Market Moves - Stock Of The Day
Exporters Such As Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) Are Worth Watching
Shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and 3-M (NYSE: MMM) may be telling us something about the dollar's rally.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com




The dollar has been on a tear lately, due to Greece's problems. Yet, shares of U.S. companies that rely on global sales for a significant portion of their earnings have been steady. That means that some in the market are expecting the dollar rally to moderate in the short to intermediate term.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com


When the dollar's rally picked up steam in January, both JNJ and MMM rolled over. But over the last few days both stocks have started to consolidate. This has coincided with a slight stall in the dollar.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com


As the E.U. has agreed to give Greece a month to get its fiscal house in order, the relationship between the large U.S. exporters, such as JNJ and MMM will be very important to watch.

If these two stocks and others in the Dow Jones Industrial average start to sag, especially if the dollar picks up steam, it will be a signal that the rally in the dollar is likely to resume.

If the reverse is true, it may signal that some profit taking in the dollar lies ahead. Investors who own shares in the U.S. Dollar Bull ETF (NYSE: UUP) should be monitoring this situation closely.
 

 


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