The Powershares Commodity ETF (NYSE: DBC) is near a breakout. But lots depends on what happens with oil.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

DBC is 60% weighted toward energy, 35% crude oil and 25% heating oil. Aluminum makes up 12.5% and corn, wheat, and gold make up the rest of the allocation within the fund.

Thus cold weather and tight oil supplies, present and potentially in the future, if the Middle East erupts are a significant influence on this fund.

That's why the action in this ETF is important over the next few days to weeks. Cold weather is already moving it higher. The fund is near its 52-week highs.

Here's what's important. If supplies continue to tighten, watch for the response here. And if supplies are not too tight but the fund continues to move higher, it could be a signal that trouble in the Middle East is about to increase.

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