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The upcoming Iranian election is getting very little airplay in the mainstream media. But one intelligence service is expecting some kind of change when the public goes to the polls later this week.
Stratfor.com, in a rather astute and timely analysis notes that the negative campaigning of Ahamadinejad, and the fact that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has all but condemned it are a sign that Iran is a state within reach of a significant place, the breaking point.
According to the intelligence service: "this is shaping up to be the most important presidential election in Iran’s history, especially because it is a bellwether of what is happening at a higher level: a potential unraveling of the political system that has been in place since Iran’s 1979 revolution." Stratfor notes that "the cohesiveness of the Iranian state has been deteriorating, with a rift between the president’s ultra-conservative camp and the pragmatic conservative camp led by Rafsanjani. The United States’ offer of rapprochement has made the situation even more urgent, as Tehran needs to arrive at an internal consensus on the direction of foreign policy and seek economic rehabilitation."
And things have been made worse by Ahmadinejad's poor handling of the economy, and Iran's international image. In other words, Ahmadinejad's stormy political period has led to a situation where "During Ahmadinejad’s presidency, the internal struggle has shifted: Where it once was a matter of the policy preferences of rival camps within a conservative-dominated political establishment, it has become a situation in which the nature of the Islamic republic’s political system is in question."
Central to the rift is Ahmadinejad's central tenet for governing: "Because he is the first Iranian president who is not also a cleric, Ahmadinejad sought to strengthen his position by claiming that his policies were guided by the highly revered and hidden 12th imam of the Shia, the Mahdi. This claim has unnerved the clerics: It undermines their privileged position, not only in the Iranian political system but also in religious terms. The implication of this is that if laypeople have access to the messiah, there is no need for them to rely on clerics — who historically have had tremendous influence among the masses."
In other words, he has attempted to take the clerics out of the equation, endangering their hold on power, while indirectly empowering the Republican Guard. According to Stratfor: "the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is emerging as a powerful player in Iran, currently second only to the clerics. But as the clerical community becomes marred by internal disagreements and the aging ayatollahs who founded the republic anticipate the day when they will be succeeded by a second generation, the IRGC is very likely to emerge as the most powerful force within the state. The ayatollahs have used their religious position to control the ideological force; if they should become weaker, the non-clerical politicians and technocrats will have a tough time dealing with the IRGC."
And by doing so, Ahmadinejad has created what could be described as a point of no return for Iran's clerics, suggesting that some kind of action against him might be taken, political or otherwise.
Conclusion
The world is operating under the notion that Ahmadinejad will be in charge for a long time. And by June 13th, one day after the election, we'll all know whether that's true or not.
Yet, if he loses, several scenarios could develop. It is within plausibility that he would attempt a coup of some sort, using the Republican Guard as his vehicle for enforcement.
He may just go away quietly, which seems unlikely, or argue that the election was rigged, demand a recount, and stall his demise.
This is Iran, though, and he could have an accident as he drives to the presidential residence or to work over the next few days.
Or, he could cut a deal, and lose some of his power in the process, even if he wins.
The other possibility is that he may win, and continue with his nuclear development plan, his denial of the holocaust, and his antagonism of the United States. In which case, life would go on normally.
One thing is certain, though. A few years ago, it would have seemed impossible that Ahmadinejad could lose an election in Iran. But, as the Obama victory showed in the U.S. election, anything is quite possible these days.
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