|
Friday's employment report will be a key piece of the economic puzzle, as jobs are at the center of a healthy U.S. economy. And while it's never easy to predict what the numbers will say, there is some data that suggests that a pleasant surprise is within the realm of expectations, although it is clearly a long shot.
According to The New York Times despite the grim headlines and the rising jobless claims "millions" of workers are finding new jobs. Citing data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Times reports that "while 4.8 million workers were laid off or chose to leave their jobs in February, employers across the country hired 4.3 million workers that month."
In fact, the Times points out that "In February — before the economy started to show the first faint signs of a possible recovery — there were three million job openings nationwide. And despite large new job losses likely to be announced Friday, there are still millions of job openings."
So where are the jobs? Well, they're not exactly glamourous, but there are some choices, as "Hospitals, colleges, discount stores, restaurants and municipal public works departments" are all hiring. And if you look in some out of the way places, the opportunities are a bit more interesting. For example "I.B.M. is hiring more than 700 people for its new technical services center in Dubuque, Iowa, while the Cleveland Clinic has 500 job openings, not just for nurses but also for pharmacy aides and physical therapists."
In other words, if you're looking for a job, you have to keep all of your options open, including the possibility of moving to a totally different city, or even a small town. According to the Times "Zachary Schaefer has hired 72 people since February for the Culver’s hamburger and frozen custard restaurant that he and several partners just opened in Surprise, Ariz." Surprise is located Northwest of the Phoenix-Scottsdale area, so it's not as if you were moving to Antarctica.
One reason to be flexible is that even though there are jobs to be had, there is competition, with roughly four to five job applicants per available position, giving employers a lot of power and flexibility over who gets hired.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The stock market has been weighing in with its own assessment of the employment picture. Our trio of bellwether stocks, Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) and Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) have their own tales to tell.
Administaff, which lets small businesses outsource their payroll and Human Resources departments has doubled since November, suggesting that the market is betting on some kind of economic recovery, and that some kind of sign of improvement on the employment front may come on Friday.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Manpower Inc., is a bellwether for the executive suite, and its employment status. As with Administaff, this stock is predicting improvement in its segment. And Monster Worldwide (below) is agreeing with the other two stocks. Monster is a bet on how the technical and support side of the employment spectrum is behaving.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Conclusion
By Friday, all will be known, with regard to the employment status of the U.S. The consensus is for somewhere near 630,000 jobs lost in April, less than the 663,000 lost in March.
Investors got a positive hint on Wednesday as the Challenger data, a measure of expected layoffs in the future, was better than expected. The ADP report is also scheduled to be released this morning.
There is plenty of data that suggests that the rate of descent in the economy has slowed, and that in some areas there is slight improvement. The fact that there are job openings and that that our employment bellwether stocks are showing improvement is an indication that there could be a positive surprise on Friday.
Teh flip side, as always, is that the stock market is vulnerable to sellers, as it has come a long way in a very short period of time.
Get Dr. Duarte's All NEW Books "Market Timing For Dummies." and "Trading Futures For Dummies." The Trading Manuals for All Seasons. Also Available As Kindle Books.
|
