Dallas, TX
May 5, 2009, 08:00 EST
Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q.


The Internet's Intelligence Digest
Intelligence, Market Timing, And Trading Strategy For Traders and Investors


Is Silicon Valley's Obama Honeymoon Over?
What's Hot Today:
U.S. stock futures were flat on 5-5. Overnight markets were mixed. Oil remained above $54.

Today's Economic Calendar:
  • 7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For May 2: Previous: -0.7%.

  • 8:55 a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For May 2: Previous: +1.6%.

  • 10:00 a.m. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: Expected: 42. Previous: 40.8.

  • 4:30 p.m. API Oil Industry Report For May 1

  • 5:00 p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For May 2: Previous: -45.
News For Thought

It's worse in the European Union. There are some hints that the U.S. economy may turn around at some point in the near future, but according to The Wall Street Journal: "The European Union said Monday that the recession will last at least six months longer than it originally thought, and predicted a 4% contraction for the EU economy, more than double its earlier forecast."

Budget police to be unleashed. According to The Wall Street Journal: "President Barack Obama's detailed budget will include a ramped-up effort to put thousands more budgetary cops on the beat to crack down on fraud and error in politically sensitive social programs. The budget, scheduled for release Thursday, will include funds for what the White House is calling a "program integrity" initiative, enough to fund 1,100 field officers in the Social Security Administration, and for the Department of Labor to interview 188,000 unemployment-insurance recipients over the next fiscal year, a senior budget office official said Monday." The White House and a spokesperson for the investment bank in question challenged the accuracy of the story."

The firm in question Perella Weinberg, on Friday afternoon last week, reversed its decision to not accept the terms presented to bondholders in the bankruptcy proceedings. According to ABC News.com: 'Someone familiar with the Perella Weinberg Partners' portfolio manager's thinking told ABC News that the decision to go along with the government plan "was based on an assessment of investment risk and reward and nothing else."' Mr. Rattner's former hedge fund, Quadrangle Partners, is being investigated for allegedly bveing involved in a kickback scheme involving the state of New York and its pension fund. Mr. Rattner is not being investigated.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: Border. What Border? According to The New York Times: "President Obama is pouring more than 20,000 new troops into Afghanistan this year for a fighting season that the United States military has called a make-or-break test of the allied campaign in Afghanistan. But if Taliban strategists have their way, those forces will face a stiff challenge, not least because of one distinct Taliban advantage: the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan barely exists for the Taliban, who are counting on the fact that American forces cannot reach them in their sanctuaries in Pakistan."

Is Silicon Valley's Obama Honeymoon Over?
You Can Call Me Names..Just Don't Touch My Money

The White House is starting to tighten the noose around tax loopholes. Yet, one industry that supported his run to the White House, technology, is very concerned about the president's announcement.

According to Silicon Valley.com: "Silicon Valley companies are voicing alarm about a proposal that could require corporations to pay billions of dollars in U.S. taxes on foreign earnings," with the change in policy, if implemented having a "big impact on a number of U.S. corporations, especially tech giants such as Hewlett-Packard, Cisco Systems and Oracle, which report that overseas markets account for half or more of their sales."

Lobbyists for the tech industry noted that the potential changes are "the biggest issue where we disagree with the Obama administration," and that the situation was on the magnitude of "about a 20," on a Richter scale of 1 to 10.

Here's how the system currently works: "Currently, many big companies avoid paying U.S. taxes on revenue from foreign subsidiaries by reinvesting the money overseas, either by parking cash in various accounts or by plowing it back into foreign operations." But if Obama's plan is put into place, a company like Google "might have been required to pay an additional $1 billion last year on a tax bill that amounted to roughly $1.6 billion, according to a regulatory filing made by the company," while "Cisco lowered its effective tax rate by 16.1 percentage points through deferral, while paying income taxes of $2.8 billion in 2008. Oracle cut $569 million from its U.S. tax bill, which ended up at roughly $2.3 billion, for an effective tax rate of 29.5 percent."

U.S. companies often use this tax related nuance to their advantage. According to the Silicon Valley.com report: "While the standard U.S. corporate tax rate is 35 percent, HP reported that it cut 16.9 percentage points from its effective tax rate last year by paying lower foreign rates, instead of U.S. taxes, on income from overseas operations."

And while it sounds as if these big corporations are getting a free ride, they point out that the current system "gives them a level playing field on which to compete overseas against foreign companies, since many countries have a lower corporate tax rate than the United States. They argue that foreign sales are increasingly important in a global economy, and that healthy overseas operations help support domestic jobs."

On the other side "Critics of deferral have charged that it encourages companies to move jobs and shift income overseas, and that it deprives the government of significant tax revenue at a time when the recession and successive bailouts are putting huge demands on the federal budget."

So how much money is at stake? President Obama's goal is to raise some $210 billion from the changes in the tax code for corporations. According to Silicon Valley.com "In documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, for instance, HP said it has accumulated $12.9 billion from foreign subsidiaries that it planned to reinvest "indefinitely" overseas. Cisco said it has $21.9 billion and Google $7.7 billion."

Conclusion

Is the honeymoon over between Silicon Valley and the Obama administration? And if so, what will the effect be on the economy, and on the political landscape?

It's too early to call this one, given the fact that it's still early in the process. But one thing is certain, politics is always about dividing the pie, and who gets what from whatever is available.

Here's what we know. The president wants $210 billion from U.S. companies doing business overseas, and at least those companies in the high tech sector are not happy about it. But, they're not alone. Other large, non-tech companies may also be affected. For example conglomerates such as Procter & Gamble, 3-M, and large international financial services firm may also be affected by this measure.

That means that there is the potential for a very large amount of unhappiness from corporate America that can be generated. Many of these companies were directly or otherwise generous donors to the Obama campaign, and have been vocal supporters of many of the president's initiatives.

In other words, the potential for a political backlash is certainly there. And it's only been 100 days.

Investors ignored the news and the stock market soared on Monday. Go figure.

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Market Moves - Stock Of The Day
Powershares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ) Delivers Breakout



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) broke above its 200 day moving average on Monday, and the Powershares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ) delivered a breakout.



Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com


The stock market is clearly getting interesting now, as one index is now testing the line between bull and bear territory and one popular ETF is starting to attract enough money to make a new high off of the March bottom.

So the big question is where things go from here. About a week ago, in this space we suggested that the market was looking ready to make a big move. We weren't as sure of the direction as of the fact that a move was coming.

Well, the wall of worry was so big that the market decided to push the bears hard. So, now things are at the point where a big momentum move is quite possible, and new highs could be on their way.

Still, it's prudent to wait and see what happens. If you've missed this rally, stay patient and see what happens in the next few days. The big institutional money that usually comes in at the start of a new month is likely to slow down. And there is the employment report on Friday, another major factor that could lead to volatility.

If you've been following our advice, you've got positions in several ETFs as well as lots of energy stocks, where the pickings have been easy of late.

If this is the start of a new bull market, more stocks will start to perk up. That means that the next few days to weeks could be the ones that define the rest of the market for the year.

Staying patient, paying attention to detail, and following your trading plan are now the key to success.

 


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