 |
 |
Dallas, TX
April 1, 2008, 08:00 EST |
 |
Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q. |
 |
 |
|
|
 |
The Internet's Intelligence Digest
Intelligence, Market Timing, And Trading Strategy For Traders and Investors
|
|
Lurking: Online Activity Not Secret.
|
|
|
 |
 |
What's Hot Today: |
|
U.S. stocks index futures were rallying in early pre-market action, following
Europe. The action started yesterday, and suggests that we may see a return to
the positive seasonal trend toward higher prices usually seen at the start of a
new month.
The big number today is the March ISM data (see below for release time). If the number is robust, or at least better than expected, we could see a rally. The key is whether it's above or below 50. Above 50 would signal that the economy is starting to grow once again.
That would be very unexpected.
Today's Economic Calendar: 7:45a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Mar 29. Previous: -0.4%. 8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Mar 29. Previous: +1.8%. 10:00a.m. Feb Construction Spending. Expected: -1.0%. Previous: -1.7%. 10:00a.m. Mar ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Previous: 48.3. 5:00p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Mar 30. Previous: -31. Sources: The Wall Street Journal and Marketwatch.com.
News For Thought
The White House is considering a program that would guarantee the value of non-performing mortgages. According to Investor's Business Daily: "the government would take over distressed mortgages after the current holders agree to slash the value of the loans to reflect falling home prices. In effect, the government would swap cash for nonperforming loans, pumping liquidity into the financial system. Because the plan would lift borrowers with negative equity back above water, homeowners would have greater incentive to avoid foreclosure."
The U.S. is in a "Great Depression." That's the view of the U.K.'s Independent, referring to the rise in the use of foodstamps. According to the paper: "Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s. The increase – from 26.5 million in 2007 – is due partly to recent efforts to increase public awareness of the programme and also a switch from paper coupons to electronic debit cards. But above all it is the pressures being exerted on ordinary Americans by an economy that is suddenly beset by troubles. Housing foreclosures, accelerating jobs losses and fast-rising prices all add to the squeeze." |
|
|
Lurking: Online Activity Not Secret.
|
|
 |
|
"Every Step You Take.. Every Move You Make"
|
 |
|
|
As the great lead from the Police's timeless hit, "Every Breath You Take," breathlessly exclames, so is every online move made by just about everyone being watched these days. And if you think that it's hackers and identity thiefs doing the watching, think again.
According to the San Jose Mercury news, as we surf the web, "detailed digital dossiers" on our activity are being compiled and updated constantly.
So who's doing it to us? How about everybody. According to the report "Legitimate Web sites, stores and marketers are compiling detailed digital files on their customers by tracking their every move across the Internet. Meanwhile, the federal government, in an effort to catch terrorists, has cast a dragnet that is collecting and sifting through vast numbers of Internet searches and e-mail from ordinary citizens, according to published reports."
The next obvious question is how they're doing it. Blame your browser, which is a two way window into the world wide web. As you're logging on to your favorite news site, the browser is revealing key information about you to the web site, just as it's letting you look and listen to the content. Here's how it works: "When accessing Web sites, browsers typically reveal users' Internet addresses, which can be tied to particular geographic locations or workplaces. They also often divulge other information about users, sometimes including their name and e-mail address."
Next, the web sites slip cookies "the little files that browsers save from Web sites that often include users' log-on information and preferences for those sites." Aside from making life easier on the web, "Cookies can track not only what consumers do on particular sites, but some also keep a log of what users do on other sites, what searches they conduct and what products they shop for."
In other words, while the government tracks your activity to make sure you're not planning to do something nasty to the country, everybody else is trying to figure out what you do so that they can sell you things.
And there's more: "On top of that, many sites keep a log of what users do there. On Google and other search sites, this log can pair the individual user information revealed by browsers and cookies with the searches those users perform. In other words, the sites potentially have a good deal of information about individual consumers' political preferences, shopping habits and the illnesses or health issues they face."
So is there anything that can be done? The answer is yes. But there is no complete and perfect solution. Here are some helpful hints:
1. "Find out - and control - the basic information your browser gives off about you. Some privacy groups have set up Web sites that show users what information their browser is broadcasting. If your Web browser is revealing your e-mail address, for instance, you can generally tell it to stop." Here is one web site we found that seems to be a good starting place: "http://www.junkbusters.com/cookies.html."
2. "Read the privacy policies of the Web sites they visit. Not only will that give consumers a better idea of information such sites are collecting, but it also can allow them to compare policies. Some sites and marketers have promised to allow consumers to opt out of being tracked or will delete such information upon request."
3. Consider cookie and ad blocking software, as well as software that blinds your i.d. One popular one is called Anonymizer. The draw back is that the use of such software, does not guarantee that some sites won't get around your protection, while extra software may slow down your surfing.
Conclusion
We hear about phishing, I.D. theft, and other criminal activities online. But we rarely realize that "friendly" sites, such as your favorite online retailer, is watching every move you make so that they can better target their sales pitches at you.
The other side of the coin is the government surveillance of online activity, which is even more frightening, given the potential for misunderstanding of private e-mail messages, etc.
How does this affect investing? It's hard to pinpoint any one way, other than to know that online trading accounts and other important personal data may be subject to being monitored and hijacked.
More than anything, though, it's the principle of the whole thing that should bother us.
|
|
|
|
 |
Technical Summary: |
|
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Seasonal Short Term Rally Possible
First of the month pension money looks to be moving into the market, so we've reset our SPY trading model to go long. See below for details.
Our growth stock list remains small, but seems to be well positioned for any short term rally.
For now, patience is still important, but it's a good time to start building long positions.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market Moves - Stock Of The Day
|
|
|
|
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Tries To Find A Bottom
|
|
|
|
| |
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) failed to rally above its 50-day moving average last week.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
And along with Goldman went the S & P 500, suggesting that uncertainty is still ruling the roost in the market.
As we've said many times, Goldman has been the bellwether for the financial markets for a long time, certainly, since the market bottomed in 2003. And as Goldman goes, so does the market.
The correlation is not perfect, as there have been times when the market and Goldman shares have diverged. Yet, lately, the pairing has held up quite well. So, last week's swoon for Goldman at the 50-day moving average is of concern.
Of more concern, though, is the 150 area for Goldman, since that's near the recent closing low. A big and sustained break below that would be very negative for the market.
So what could derail Goldman and the markets? Well, we have earnings season straight ahead. And that means that warnings, failures to meet expectations, and other general evil things are out there waiting.
In other words, the failure at the 50-day moving average might have been a prelude to what lies ahead. |
|
|
|
