Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) looks to be forming a base.

The good news is that Goldman Sachs shares seem to have stopped falling. The bad news is that they're not rallying aggressively, which means that uncertainty is still present in the minds of those who bet on Goldman as the bellwether for the overall market.

Goldman remains the bellwether for the market, given the fact that Merrill Lynch seems to have significant issues still pending.

It was Goldman who made money by shorting the subprime market. And it was Goldman who made zillions financing and underwriting the big deals during the private equity boom over the last few years.

So, by default, it's Goldman whom we watch for signs of returning confidence with regard to the financial sector. And for now, it seems as if investors are starting to think that maybe the worst is over, but that the good times are not ready to roll yet.

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