The U.S. Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) is up against its old highs and could be off to the races if crude breaks above $110 per barrel.

Investors are going to have to do something that they haven't done in a while over the weekend, watch what happens in Iraq.

That's because Shia militants are trying to take over the city of Basra, and perhaps other areas of the country, in what seems to be a bid to control Iraq's oil.

The mainstream media is not quite saying it, although Reuters has been reporting on events for days, and the Wall Street Journal has picked up the story.

But as far as we can tell, Fox News and CNN, the mouthpieces of the right and left, are too busy with Obama and Hillary's fight for the Democratic nomination, and McCain's victory lap on the Republican side, to focus on what could the most important story of the next few months.

So, as chart watchers, we suggest keeping an eye on the 88 area on USO, as it corresponds roughly to $110 on crude oil. A break above that, especially if it happens before the weekend, will likely set up more gains next week, unless the Iraqi government and U.S. troops can bring a quick end to the uprising.

Still, uprisings in Iraq, especially those that have been well organized, have a way of going, and going, and yes, going. In a sense, we could call those who stage uprisings in Iraq, as Energizer militants.

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He is the author of four books: "Futures And Options For Dummies," "Successful Energy Sector Investing," "Successful Biotech Investing" and co-author of "After-Hours Trading Made Easy."

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One of CNBC's original Market Mavens, Dr. Duarte has been writing about the financial markets since 1990.

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