The Select Sector Spdr Health Care ETF (AMEX: XLV) made a dramatic new low on 3-11.

XLV is a holding tank for some of the biggest names in the health care sector, including Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and United Healthgroup, all stocks that are supposed to be recession proof.

Yet, the fund has lost some 20% of its value since the start of 2008, just as the worries about recession have grown.

That means that something else is going on. And that something else is likely to be the fear of the U.S. government and its quest for cutting health care costs, starting with Medicare.

What the fund's performance is suggesting is that Wall Street is now extremely concerned about the prospects of major changes ahead in the way the government funds the health care system in the United States.

What the public should realize is that the way the government pays for health care, through Medicare, is the benchmark for how private insurers reimburse doctors, hospitals, and other health care providers.

In other words, if Wall Street is correct, there is big trouble ahead.

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Doctor Joe Duarte's Market I.Q., offers subscribers a unique blend of intelligence, market commentary and trading strategy. Duarte's daily articles, and news summaries offer recommendations and analysis for ETFs, and individual stocks in the technology, health and biotechnology, and energy sectors. Doctor Duarte is a writer, and an emerging futurist, with a diverse background, and a growing audience. His combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and global intelligence on the financial markets offer a unique blend of insight and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelligence aficionados around the world on a daily basis.

He is the author of four books: "Futures And Options For Dummies," "Successful Energy Sector Investing," "Successful Biotech Investing" and co-author of "After-Hours Trading Made Easy."

In early 2001 Dr. Duarte in "Successful Energy Sector Investing," correctly predicted that Venezuela's political problems could lead to an energy crisis in the United States.

In 2003, also Dr. Duarte was among the first to widely publicize the long-term friendship between French President Jacques Chirac and Saddam Hussein.

He has also appeared as a weekly guest on Market Mavens Radio, has logged appearances on KNX radio in Los Angeles, Financial Sense.com radio, and Wall Street Radio.

One of CNBC's original Market Mavens, Dr. Duarte has been writing about the financial markets since 1990.

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