Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is holding on by a fingernail, as the market tries to hold on without making new lows.

The stock market and Goldman Sachs seem to have a special relationship, and tend to move in similar directions.

Lately, Goldman's inability to rally seems to have been an excellent predictor of the same kind of action in the overall market.

Yet, despite lots of gloom and doom lately, shares of Goldman have fallen, and have made a marginal new low of late. But the S & P 500 has not.

That suggests that there is some kind of divergence developing whose meaning has yet to be deciphered.

That means that it's time to watch what happens to Goldman here. Earnings are due for the big investment bank in the next few weeks. If there is some kind of positive surprise ahead, we might see the shares start to rally over the next few days.

If the market rallies without Goldman, either Goldman is no longer a bellwether, or the rally is a fakeout. We'll know soon enough.

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Doctor Joe Duarte's Market I.Q., offers subscribers a unique blend of intelligence, market commentary and trading strategy. Duarte's daily articles, and news summaries offer recommendations and analysis for ETFs, and individual stocks in the technology, health and biotechnology, and energy sectors. Doctor Duarte is a writer, and an emerging futurist, with a diverse background, and a growing audience. His combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and global intelligence on the financial markets offer a unique blend of insight and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelligence aficionados around the world on a daily basis.

He is the author of four books: "Futures And Options For Dummies," "Successful Energy Sector Investing," "Successful Biotech Investing" and co-author of "After-Hours Trading Made Easy."

In early 2001 Dr. Duarte in "Successful Energy Sector Investing," correctly predicted that Venezuela's political problems could lead to an energy crisis in the United States.

In 2003, also Dr. Duarte was among the first to widely publicize the long-term friendship between French President Jacques Chirac and Saddam Hussein.

He has also appeared as a weekly guest on Market Mavens Radio, has logged appearances on KNX radio in Los Angeles, Financial Sense.com radio, and Wall Street Radio.

One of CNBC's original Market Mavens, Dr. Duarte has been writing about the financial markets since 1990.

His articles and commentary have been featured on CBS Marketwatch, Barron's, Smart Money, Medical Economics, and in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazines.

In 2003, Doctor Duarte received second place, in the professional section, of the Medical Economics Investment Challenge with a 12-month return of 42%.