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Taking Stock Of The Markets A Year Into The Bull

A Reality Check Is A Worthwhile Exercise

Few people anywhere would have believed it if you had told them a year ago that the S & P 500 would be nearly 60% above where it was at the time. Yet, as always happens, the market makes fools out of the majority of its participants.

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So we were not surprised to see March 9, 2010 be a fairly routine day in the markets, even if it was the one year anniversary of the current bull market. To be sure, the gains on the day weren’t all that magnificent. And it wasn't exactly a great thing to see when lots of points went away at the end of the day. But gains they were. And no one was complaining much, given the fact that the bears have been out beating the negativity drums for some time and calling for some kind of an anniversary decline.

Still, it’s good to put things in perspective. This bull market is now a year old, which means that it’s starting to grow old, in terms of cyclical bull markets, or bull markets that don’t last several years. The jury is still out on whether this is a secular bull market, the kind that lasts several years, even decades, such as the ones in the 1980s and 1990s.

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Stocks Take Breather After Busy Week

The S & P 500 remained near its recent post correction high on 3-8. The benchmark index closed above the 1116-1120 resistance band on 3-4 and added to its gains nicely on 3-5. The next test is what happens at 1150.

The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks (RUT) finally delivered a clear break out to a new high from the March 2009 bottom on 3-5, adding to it marginally on 3-8. This is the more important piece of news for the market, as the action in the growth stocks shows that momentum is back.

The NYSE advance decline line made a new high for the current move again on 3-5, as sign that this market has underlying momentum from stocks outside of the major indexes. This is bullish.

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