Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q.


The Internet's Intelligence Digest
Intelligence, Market Timing, And Trading Strategy For Traders and Investors

Potholes To Watch In 2008.
Employment Report Preview. Middle End Of Job Curve Collapses.
Middle End Of Job Curve Collapses.

The middle end of the employment curve, that which is represented by technical workers and low end management may be the worst hit if today's employment report shows significant weakness. We base this on the fact that our bellwether for this part of the curve, Monster Worldwide (Nasdaq: MNST, chart below) broke to a new low on 1-3-08.




The Monster Employment Index showed significant weakness in its most latest reading, falling 14 points. According to the company, the weakness in online job offerings was accross the board, but retailing and financial services were particularly weak. The company tied the decline to the subprime mortgage crisis and its repercussions, noting that the decline in retailing was significant, given that the numbers came from the holiday season, which usually shows a temporary increase in hiring for retailers.



Special Discount Offer

  • If you have ever thought of trying Dr Duarte's analysis,
    winning stock trades, and geopolitical commentary, there
    will never be a better, or less expensive, time.

  • Start a quarterly subscription to Joe-Duarte.com now, and get 2 FREE MONTHS- 5 months total, for the first quarter.

  • Start a 6 months subscription to Joe-Duarte.com now, and get 3 FREE MONTHS- 9 months total, for the first half.
  • This offer is available FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLYand is
    available by using the link below.

  • Subscribe Now by CLICKING HERE

    		•



    The action was no different at the upper end of the spectrum, as Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN), our bellwether for the upper end of the jobs sector also showed significant weakness.

    Manpower also broke to a new low on 1-3. Its most recent employment survey, released in December showed expectations by U.S. employers to be flat. But a closer look inside the report showed that expectations were very much sector specific with the majority of sectors expecting to decrease their hiring activity. Mining, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation were among the sectors that expected to increase hiring.

    Yet, the stock continues to move lower, making a new low on 1-3, that accentuated the already significant decline. The stock topped out in July, and has lost over 40% of its value since then.

    To continue this article... Click Here


    Technical Summary:



    Obama and Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses while Edwards and Clinton came in a virtual tie for second. For the Republicans, Romney came in second. Giuliani, garnered 3.5% of the vote.

    The Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates as aggressively as they might because of inflation. According to Reuters: "Obama, seeking to become the first black U.S. president, was seen by the traders as the likely Democratic winner, with a 46.2 percent chance, compared with a 32.9 percent chance for former first lady Hillary Clinton, midday trading on the Intrade futures exchange showed. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards trailed at 21 percent." Traders often beat the pundits, and were correct in predicting a win by George Bush over John Kerrey in the last presidential election."

    According to the Wall Street Journal's Fed mole, Greg Ip: "Slowing factory activity, weakening job growth and a credit crunch have investors expecting aggressive interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. But this week's surge in the prices of oil and gold underlines why the Fed may not have the freedom to ease monetary policy as much as it did in 2001, when the economy slumped, or as much as many on Wall Street want.


    Profit in BOTH Bull and Bear Markets

    Successful MARKET TIMING strategies for the SPX, NDX, Gold, Small Caps, Bonds, ETFs, Sector Funds and Stocks. Timing the markets since 1982! Online since 1996.
    Take emotions out of your trading, and stay     One Step Ahead of the Market

    Click Here for FREE TRIAL



    The bottom line, according to Ip, in an article that suggests that well placed sources spoke on background, is that the Fed understands the risk of recession, but at the same time thinks that the risk of inflation is high enough to keep the central bank from being as aggressive as they were in 2001, when the big fear was deflation.

    Finally, the Fed is also concerned about the slowing in productivity growth, making the situation even harder.

    In other words, barring an all out economic collapse, it sounds as if the Fed, through Ip, is trying to warn the markets that although it's ready to lower interest rates, it may not do so very aggressively. For the economy, and the markets, this is very bad news.

    Continued in full Market IQ report. To subscribe... Click Here





    Other Subscriber Reports are located on the website (log in required). These
    reports are updated on a weekly basis (or as conditions require) and are not emailed:

    S&P Timing & Large Cap Growth /  Bond Timing /  Dollar Timing /  Energy Timing
    Gold Timing /  Fallen Angels Portfolio /  Technology Timing /  Health & Biotech


    © Copyright 1996-2010, Market Timing Strategies, Inc., All Rights Reserved.
    • Market IQ reports may not be redistributed without permission.
    • Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable.