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Employment Data Looms

Is Wall Street Going To Get Another Employment Surprise?

The usual estimate frenzy before this Thursday's release of last month's non-farm payroll data, better known as "the employment report," is betting on a similar report to last month's surprisingly bening tally, where only 345,000 jobs were lost. The problem we have with those estimates is that the stock market is not agreeing with it.

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As usual, we look at the market for answers. Sometimes it does a good job, and sometimes it doesn't. But then that's the same tale for the economists and their estimates.

Last month, our three bellwethers, Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN), Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) and Administaff (NYSE: ASF) predicted a bad employment report. Instead we got a good one. This month, the three stocks are moving sideways, suggesting that the market isn't really sure what to expect.

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S & P 500 In Up Trend
The S & P 500, moved steadily higher on 6-29, as would be expected as the end of the month nears, and institutions need to put new money to work.

So far, our short term scenario remains unchanged. That means that the potential for higher on Tuesday, and Wednesday, before Thursday's employment data, is still above average.

The stock market will be closed on Friday, July 3rd. But the release of the latest payroll data on July 2nd, will be the event that decides what really happens to the week, and most likely the end of the month.

Our SPY system has been given a long entry point. The key resistance band on the S & P 500 is still 943-950. The market really needs to close above that band this week if it expects to have any kind of momentum going forward.

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